How Smarter CO₂ Models Are Powering Pipeline Plans

Improved CO₂ modeling and new deals boost confidence in U.S. carbon transport growth

21 Nov 2025

Incremental improvements in US carbon-dioxide modelling tools are helping shape the next phase of pipeline development, giving operators and regulators a clearer basis for long-term planning as commercial interest grows.

The National Energy Technology Laboratory has released updates to its Pipeline Route Planning Database over 2023 and 2024, providing developers with more detailed geographic and technical information. Analysts say the refinements reduce early design uncertainty, particularly when assessing how CO₂ mixtures behave under different pressure and temperature conditions and over long distances.

Private-sector activity continues to signal momentum. ExxonMobil and other companies have advanced transport and storage plans, supported by agreements involving volumes reportedly up to about 2mn tonnes a year. Improved modelling methods are informing routing studies and capital plans, narrowing engineering assumptions that previously required wider safety margins.

States along the Gulf Coast and Midwest are positioning themselves as future hubs. Louisiana and Texas have expanded their Class VI permitting systems, while North Dakota has updated its regulatory framework and incentives for storage sites. These moves reflect steady state engagement as companies assess network expansion.

Federal incentives remain central to the sector’s growth. Policy support has encouraged new partnerships and acquisitions intended to create a more connected national system. Long-term studies suggest the US may eventually require many thousands of miles of CO₂ pipelines under deep-decarbonisation scenarios.

Regulators are also monitoring tool enhancements. More transparent planning resources can strengthen safety reviews and help communities understand pipeline behaviour and risk-mitigation measures. Policy analysts note that such advances improve consistency in project assessments and support public trust.

Challenges persist, including limited field data on complex CO₂ mixtures and the need for software platforms to integrate newer modelling approaches. Still, industry observers view these issues as manageable for a sector that remains early in its development but continues to attract investment.

As carbon management becomes more central to US climate strategy, the combination of improved modelling tools, evolving policy frameworks and steady industry participation is laying the groundwork for a more resilient and connected CO₂ transport network.